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Steel industry enters the off-season

Jun. 22, 2018

After the "golden March silver April" peak season, the domestic steel market showed an upward trend in early June. Industry analysts believe that the late steel market will enter the off-season market, but in the context of environmental protection production and inventory decline, the market will remain very pricey.


It is reported that last week, the overall performance of the steel spot market rose slightly, in which the Shanghai market rebar and wire rods rose significantly, respectively, compared with the previous week rose 2.7%, 2.9%. The national average price of stainless steel fell by 2.2% from the previous week. The prices of medium plates and welded pipes dropped slightly. In terms of sub-regions, the market price of steel in Tianjin is relatively weak, and Shanghai's steel market is relatively strong. In addition, the raw material futures market was generally stronger than the spot market last week.


Steel prices continue to rise, or are related to the ongoing series of environmental inspections. Recently, various environmental protection inspection teams have more intensive trips. In addition to the “Blue Sky Defence Warfare” supervision, environmental supervision “reviewed” has officially started, and the Central Environmental Protection Inspectorate has been stationed in key provinces and cities. In addition, from May 22 to June 15, eight spot checks went to 21 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) to carry out the steel industry's overcapacity and prevent spot checks of “Gibbon Steel”.


Jin Lianchuang analyst Li Qun believes that the current steel market is in a weak equilibrium between supply and demand. In June, the arrival of the rainy season, the market as a whole has entered the traditional period of steady demand. The profit margin of steel mills is still considerable, and the base price is still relatively low. The willingness of traders to place orders is relatively low recently. Therefore, it may be more difficult for steel mills to continue to increase their prices and may be loosened.


Jin Qian, another analyst at Goldlink, said that the market entered the traditional low season of high temperatures and rain, the demand will inevitably be under pressure again, but the overall steel market's maintenance track will offset a part of the downside risks, while part of the original fuel prices Some of the downward pressure will also be hedged, and the next off-season is still likely to be staged in the “not off-season” scenario.


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