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Steel market supply and demand are weak and rebar prices are under pressure

Dec. 13, 2019

On December 6, the price of 20mmHRB400 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,028 yuan / ton, down 32 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. The main futures contract of snails closed at 3437, an increase of 0.23% over the previous trading day. Today Tangshan Pu billet was quoted at 3450 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.


The main contract of snails has changed from the off-season (2001) to the peak season (2005) in recent days, and the spot winter storage price is higher. Some winter storage is expected to turn to the disk, and the price of snails is supported.


Macro:

Two institutions expect CPI to continue to rise in November, and monetary policy will remain stable. Among them, the minimum year-on-year growth rate of CPI is 4.0%, the maximum value is 4.6%, and the average value is 4.3%; the minimum year-on-year growth rate of PPI is -2.1%, the maximum value is -0.44%, and the predicted average value is -1.3%. According to Li Chao, chief macro analyst of Huatai Securities, judging from historical experience, the primary goal of China's central bank's monetary policy is still steady growth, and a moderate increase in tolerance for inflation.


Comment: Comprehensive consideration needs to be made between stable growth and anti-inflation. At present, the monetary policy is steadily fine-tuned, focusing on stable economic growth, but there will be no flooding.


As of now, 12 institutions have forecast the year-on-year growth data of fixed asset investment in the first 11 months. The maximum value is 5.5%, the minimum value is 4.3%, and the average value is 5.2%. Guo Changjun, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said that special debt is indeed driving infrastructure growth to pick up, and the proportion of special debt flowing to investment companies is increasing, which is in line with the continuous rise in road growth.


Comment: The growth rate of infrastructure investment in October increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and the average forecast in November was 5.2%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The accelerated growth of infrastructure investment is mainly due to stable investment policies such as the release of special debt in advance and the reduction of the minimum capital ratio to support demand for construction steel.


Fundamentals:


Capacity utilization rate: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel plants nationwide this week was 80.94%, an increase of 1.05% from the previous week; the production capacity utilization rate of rebar steel plants was 79.62%, an increase of 1.53% from last week.


Transaction: According to Mysteel's survey, today the volume of construction steel traded by mainstream traders nationwide was 167,100 tons, a slight increase of 26,300 tons from the previous trading day.


Comment: From the data point of view, the utilization rate of blast furnace and rebar capacity has increased, mainly due to the better profit of steel mills, increasing their production enthusiasm.


The main contract of snails was changed to the moon in the near future. The futures price range fluctuated, but the spot price showed an accelerated decline. The output of steel mills continues to rise, and the weak demand performance in the off-season, this week steel stocks began to backlog, and the market price is expected to continue to fall.


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