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Recently, the coal market may maintain a steady state

Dec. 13, 2018

In the current period (November 28 to December 4), the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index closed at 571 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month. Judging from the calculation results of the transaction prices of the six ports in the Bohai Sea, in the current period, among the 24 specifications, there were 4 specifications for the price reduction, and 20 for the price. After the short-term rise in coal prices, the spot market transactions did not increase. The market's expectations for the peak season of coal prices were frustrated, and coal prices were weak in the later period.


According to industry analysts, the main factors contributing to the recent stable momentum of the coal market are:


11 coal groups signed a medium- and long-term contract of 310 million tons with 19 users. On December 5th, the 2019 National Coal Trade Fair hosted by China Coal Industry Association, China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and Qinhuangdao Sea Transportation Coal Market opened in Qinhuangdao. At the opening ceremony, a medium- and long-term contract signing ceremony for coal was held. 11 large coal groups signed medium- and long-term coal contracts with 19 large-scale power, steel, building materials and chemical users, with a total contract value of 310 million tons. According to Jiang Zhimin, vice chairman of the China Coal Industry Association, in the past two years, under the leadership of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Coal Industry Association, under the leadership of the National Development and Reform Commission, is committed to promoting the medium and long-term contract system and “base price” of coal. +Floating price" establishment and improvement of pricing mechanism. All localities and departments actively cooperated and vigorously promoted. The coal supply and demand enterprises actively explored and friendly consultations, and achieved good results in the signing of medium and long-term contracts. According to the information of the medium and long-term contract negotiation meeting of coal and steel coke in 2019, up to now, eight Chinese coking coal brand cluster members, such as Shanxi Coking Coal, have signed medium- and long-term contracted coking coal with a total of 89 million tons of coking coal with more than 50 national steel and coke enterprises. It accounts for 60% of the national coking coal supply and demand contract, which is the best level since the coal-steel coke-long cooperation. It is understood that since the coal-fired coke large enterprise started the new trading mode dominated by medium and long-term contracts in November 2016, the medium- and long-term cooperation mode of coal and steel coke has gradually been promoted from the support of government departments to the heart of coal and steel coke enterprises. Consciously, it is a consensus that coal-steel coke enterprises have gradually reached through long-term market cooperation. At present, coal steel coke trading behavior has been gradually standardized, and the total contract and redemption rate have been continuously improved. It is reported that in 2017, the number of medium and long-term contracts signed by eight coking coal enterprises was 74.11 million tons, accounting for 52.54% of its total sales. In 2018, the medium and long-term contracts signed by eight coking coal enterprises were 110.12 million tons, accounting for 74.22% of their total sales. In the first 10 months of this year, the medium and long-term contract fulfillment rate of 8 coking coal enterprises has exceeded 90%. The medium and long-term contracts for coal and coking coal have played an important supporting role in stabilizing the coal market.


Power consumption or entering a concentrated release period. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, the strong cold air is going south, the lowest temperature 0°C line will be pressed south to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the predictability of coal consumption will enter the peak season, and the meteorological factors will form the bottom support for coal price; G20 (G20) Leaders Summit During the period, the leaders of China and the United States announced that the trade war was "a truce" for 90 days. The two countries stopped adding new tariffs. The production of industrial enterprises was optimistic, and electricity consumption or a concentrated release period.


The first domestic wind power “bidding” rules were issued, and vicious price competition was discouraged. Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the "Guangdong Province Offshore Wind Power Project Competition Allocation System (Trial)" and "Guangdong Province Onshore Wind Power Project Competition Allocation System (Trial)" on the official website. This is the first notice issued by the National Energy Administration in May this year that the relevant requirements for wind power construction management in 2018 will be issued. Insiders of the Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau explained that this is to consider the benign development of the Guangdong wind power industry and discourage vicious price competition.


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