"In 2021, the supply-side structural reform has entered a deep stage, high-quality production capacity will continue to be released, and demand-side reforms will also be put on the agenda. It is expected that the steel market will continue to boom in supply and demand." On January 11, Zhang Hegang Group In an interview with a reporter from China Metallurgical News, Jiao Genpeng, general manager of Xuangaoke Longxiang Development Company, predicted the steel market trend this year.

Jiao Genpeng said that the main logic behind why the domestic steel prices will rise after the first decline in 2020 is the mismatch of supply and demand and the promotion of cost. At the beginning of 2020, the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia caused a halt in domestic economic activities, and steel prices fell sharply. Thanks to the remarkable results of epidemic prevention and control and the introduction of the national economic stabilization policy, after the epidemic has been effectively controlled, in the first half of 2020, demand has recovered beyond expectations, and the market has entered a state of high demand and high inventory. In the third quarter of 2020, the market showed the characteristics of "not short in the off-season". In the fourth quarter of 2020, the prices of iron ore and coke continued to hit new highs, superimposed on the strong demand for rush jobs in the domestic construction industry, which once again pulled up the market, and steel prices rebounded sharply.

"2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and also the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. It is the year when China officially embarks on a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way and marching towards the realization of the second centenary goal." In response to the macro-level benefits in 2021, Jiao Genpeng said, “The Central Economic Work Conference to be held at the end of 2020 pointed out that we must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, increase macro policy responses, and do a solid job. The work of "six guarantees" for six stability. In 2021, with the large-scale use of the new crown pneumonia vaccine in clinical use, the world economy is expected to accelerate the recovery, and the global steel demand will also accelerate the recovery. In 2021, China is likely to continue its loose monetary policy." Jiao Genpeng Based on this, it is expected that the macro level of the steel market will continue to be positive in 2021.

From the perspective of supply, my country's crude steel output in 2020 has exceeded 1 billion tons. Xiao Yaqing, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the 2021 National Industry and Information Work Conference held earlier that it is necessary to implement industrial low-carbon actions and green manufacturing projects around the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" target nodes, and pointed out that the steel industry is used as an energy source. High-consumption-intensive industries must resolutely reduce crude steel output to ensure a year-on-year decline in crude steel output. According to him, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will vigorously implement industrial low-carbon initiatives and green manufacturing projects in 2021, and at the same time further increase its efforts to resolutely reduce crude steel production, and will issue a new version of the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry and improve the capacity information early warning release mechanism. Jiao Genpeng believes that it will take some time for the state to introduce policies and implementation methods to reduce crude steel production. It is expected that the release of early production capacity and the increase in production will remain high.

From the perspective of demand, the growth rate of real estate development investment may fall in 2021, infrastructure investment will continue to exert strength, the energy and power industries are expected to achieve steady growth, the production and sales of the automobile industry will maintain a recovery trend, and the home appliance industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend , Home appliance export orders are expected to increase further. Therefore, the demand for construction steel in 2021 is expected to continue the strong momentum at the end of 2020. Under the promotion of multiple factors such as expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, rebounding exports, and upgrading some products, demand will continue to maintain a good momentum. Based on this, Jiao Genpeng predicts that steel demand will continue to maintain a normal growth level in 2021.

From the perspective of raw materials and fuels, the increase in iron ore supply is limited, and coke production is shrinking. It is expected that the supply pattern of iron ore and coke will remain tight. It is expected that the tight balance of raw materials and fuel supply will be difficult to change in the short term. High-priced mines and high-priced coal Or it will become the normal state of the raw fuel market in 2021.

Jiao Genpeng said that overall, the steel market in 2021 will continue the trend of booming supply and demand in 2020, and steel prices are expected to reach a new balance at a high level. Among them, in terms of construction steel and hot-rolled coil prices, Jiao Genpeng expects that 2021 will continue the price trend at the end of 2020, which is mainly manifested in the distinct off-peak and peak seasons, high price limits, and low price points supported by costs. There are also some uncertain factors in the market, including the impact of the resurgence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in some parts of the country on the regional market, and the impact of the spread of the overseas epidemic on the recovery of overseas demand.