Tianjin Xinyue Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd.
Tianjin Xinyue Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd.
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Analysis on the Change Factors of Steel Price in Domestic Market

Jul. 30, 2019

In June, the demand for steel in the domestic market was better, mainly using the steel industry to maintain growth. Affected by the accelerated release of steel production capacity, the market's oversupply situation has not changed, and steel prices continue to decline slightly.


The macro economy is progressing steadily, and steel demand is growing. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. In the first half of the year, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that from January to May. Among them, manufacturing investment increased by 3%, growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points; infrastructure investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from January to May. Among them, the newly started construction area of houses increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than that in May. In the main steel industry, general equipment manufacturing, specialized equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, railway, marine, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries continue to grow, The automotive industry continues to decline. Overall, most of the steel industry's industrial added value maintained growth, and steel demand increased accordingly.


The release of steel production capacity has remained at a high level, and the pressure at the supply end is still large. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the national production of pig iron, crude steel and steel (excluding duplicate materials) were 70.14 million tons, 87.53 million tons and 10.71 million tons, respectively, up 5.8%, 10.0% and 12.6% respectively. Nissan crude steel was 2,197,700 tons, a record high. According to customs statistics, in June, the national steel export volume was 5.31 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons, a decrease of 7.6%; the national steel import volume was 950,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons, a decrease of 3.8%; net export steel equivalent Crude steel is 4.54 million tons. According to the above data, in June, the average daily supply of crude steel in the country was 2,676,300 tons, an increase of 1.9% from the previous month. The release of steel production capacity remains at a high level, and supply pressure remains high.


The price of imported iron ore has risen sharply, driving the cost of steel production to continue to rise. In June, iron ore prices continued to rise. At the end of June, the prices of domestic iron concentrates and imported iron ore rose by RMB 63/ton and USD 11.62/ton, respectively, up by 7.74% and 11.72%, respectively, an increase of 1.25 percentage points and 4.92 percentage points respectively from the end of May; The prices of coking coal and metallurgical coke decreased from RMB to RMB 20/ton and RMB 75/ton respectively; scrap prices rose slightly, up by RMB 6/ton from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, domestic and imported ore prices increased by 46.66% and 71.05% respectively, scrap prices increased by 10.64%, coking coal prices increased by 3.62%, and metallurgical coke prices decreased by 10.54%. Overall, iron ore prices have risen sharply and drastically, driving steel production costs to continue to rise.


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