After the National Day, the terminal demand for rebar was released quickly, and the problem of superimposed high production was solved to a certain extent. The decline in rebar inventory continued to accelerate, which promoted the apparent demand to approach the level of May to June this year, and further promoted the rebar futures 2101 The contract price gradually increased, and the spread between the 2101 contract and the 2105 contract also increased. Judging from the current supply-demand balance sheet for rebar, destocking is in good condition and further accelerated. It is expected that the price of rebar will remain firm in the short term, driving the monthly price difference of rebar to remain high.

The problem of high production has been improved to some extent

Judging from the weekly rebar output data from relevant agencies, the output has continued to fall from the high of 4 million tons in early July this year to the current 3.6 million tons, a drop of 10%; since the National Day holiday, the overall output has been around 3.6 million The ton level fluctuates within a narrow range, and is basically the same as the output level of the same period last year and the same period last year. The high output problem that previously affected the price of rebar has been greatly improved.

At present, there are two main factors affecting the production of rebar. One is the environmental protection production restriction policy, and the other is the production profit of steel mills. From the perspective of environmental protection, although the weather conditions have changed in autumn and winter, on the one hand, the environmental protection production restriction policy represented by Tangshan City in Hebei Province has been regularized since the beginning of this year; on the other hand, with the upgrading of environmental protection equipment in steel plants in recent years , Most of the steel mills’ environmental protection indicators have reached the standard, and technological innovations and other factors have also promoted the improvement of steel mills’ production efficiency. Therefore, it is expected that environmental protection production restrictions will hardly have a substantial impact on the further decline in production. From the perspective of steel mill production profits, after the National Day, the price of rebar continued to rise with the release of demand, while the price increase of iron ore, the main raw material, was relatively small, so the production profits of long-process steel mills improved. In addition, the spot price of rebar has increased slightly more than the price of scrap, so the production profits of short-process steel mills have also improved significantly in recent days. It is expected that the short-term rebar output will continue to decline due to profit-driven, and the possibility of a slight rebound cannot be ruled out.