For the second quarter of China's steel market, experts said that domestic steel mills are difficult to reduce production and resume production easily, market supply and destocking pressure will decline throughout the second quarter.

"The domestic epidemic situation is improving, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover, but the direct and indirect export of steel products will be significantly hindered by the epidemic situation. There is greater uncertainty about whether demand can support supply growth, and the pace of inventory destocking or twists and turns." The overall consumption will lag behind for 4-5 weeks, and the overall demand growth rate in April is expected to be higher than the supply growth rate. However, if inventory needs to fall to the same level last year, strong demand support is still needed. The supply level affected by the epidemic is gradually recovering recently. If the current profit level of the blast furnace and the profit margin of the electric furnace are low, the supply chain will continue to increase.

Experts predict that domestic steel market demand will fully recover in the second quarter, and steel prices are expected to oscillate back as demand recovers, and construction steel is stronger than plates; iron ore import prices continue to fluctuate significantly, and iron ore supply is expected to be relatively tight after May It has eased, but the risk of low inventory is worthy of attention; coking coal and coke market prices are expected to recover, but generally continue to maintain weak operation.

Specifically, the coke industry is plagued by overcapacity, and capacity recovery after the Spring Festival is faster than that of steel companies, and it is difficult to effectively relieve the pressure of oversupply. The downstream demand for coke will be fully launched in the second quarter, the destocking of steel mills will speed up, and the formation of coke will be favorable. The average inventory of independent coke companies is relatively high, and there are periodic destocking pressures, which limits the upward price of coke. At the same time, most of the products of independent coke companies fell to the cost line, and their willingness to sell prices was stronger. The steel market is expected to come out of the stop-and-back rebound, which will boost the coke market. When the adjustment of the coke market ends, it is expected to rebound in the later period, and the coke price index will fluctuate between 1650 ± 150 yuan / ton. In addition, thermal coal has shifted from the peak season to the off-season, domestic imports have doubled, and the market is under greater pressure. The policy of importing coal is tightened again, which is good for the market. With the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, various production and economic activities in the later period will be fully launched, and electricity consumption will gradually recover. As the steel mill's production capacity recovers, coking coal is expected to change from weak to strong, and the market may show a trend of restraining and then increasing.

When talking about the operational countermeasures of the steel industry at this stage, experts said that steel companies should take the initiative to reduce production to ease the current market supply and destocking pressure, steel trade companies should also increase destocking efforts, and downstream steel industries need to increase steel in a timely manner. purchase. At present, the spread of foreign epidemics has a huge impact on the global economy. Enterprises in the black industrial chain should actively use risk management tools such as steel futures to do market risk management in order to stabilize the business operation of the enterprise.

Ren Zhuqian also said that in the near future, steel mills should reduce costs, control output, ensure smooth sales channels, and speed up turnover; spot traders should control inventory, maintain shipments, and find opportunities to combine the current basis with the current period, buy low and sell high; Low purchasing, avoid blindly chasing high.