In November, the coke market showed a big change, the transaction turned from weak to weak, the price went from up to down, and the decline was increasing. Since entering December, the coke market has not improved much, and prices continue to be in the downward channel of shocks, but the decline has weakened.

In the analysis of the forecast of the trend of the coke market in the later period, the industry believes that from the current coke market operation situation, it is difficult for the coke price to rebound in the short term, but the momentum of the sharp decline in the previous period is expected to weaken, the decline narrows, and even stops falling. Stabilize. At the same time, some uncertain factors affecting the trend of the coke market in the later period need to be concerned:

First, there is uncertainty about the implementation of the “limitation of production and price” measures of Jiao Enterprise and whether it can alleviate the supply pressure of the coke market. Due to continuous price cuts in 4 or 5 rounds, the coke price has dropped by 400 yuan/ton~500 yuan/ton, and the profit of coking enterprises has been seriously affected. Not only that, some coke enterprises are not selling well, and the inventory is gradually increasing, as in North China. A number of independent coke enterprises in the region have increased their coke inventory significantly and the sales pressure has increased. Therefore, coking enterprises have proposed “restricting production and insuring prices” to reduce production and stabilize prices. In addition, after entering the winter, the polluted weather increased, and the coke enterprises were affected by environmental protection and production restrictions to curb the release of production capacity. Due to environmental protection and limited production, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has declined. According to statistics from the industry, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises in East China has dropped by 5.93%. Coking enterprises "limited production and insured prices" and "environmental protection and limited production" two-pronged approach, or will be conducive to the late coke market supply pressure, prompting the coke market prices to stabilize.

Second, there is uncertainty in the impact of the steel market's off-season coke market demand. In November, the traditional low season of the steel market, demand is not strong, trading is light, steel prices fell, and this year's off-season is even lighter, steel prices plummeted. The steel market is weak and the steel price has plummeted, directly affecting the steel raw materials market such as coke. As steel prices have fallen sharply in the past month, steel prices have approached the steel mill production cost line, steel mills' willingness to reduce production and overhaul has increased, and near the end of the year, many steel companies have used the off-season of the steel market for annual maintenance and initiative. Reduce production, keep the price stable, and reduce the consumption of coke. In addition, under the psychological control that coke prices are in a downward channel and “buy up and not buy down”, steel mills mostly control coke purchases, purchase less or not, to digest inventories, and at the same time, lower coke purchase prices. Moreover, in the heating season, steel enterprises in the northern region are restricted by environmental protection or peak production. Under the influence of year-end maintenance and production and environmental protection, the production capacity of steel mills will be blocked, and the demand intensity of coke will be weakened, especially in December, which will have a certain impact on the trend of the later coke market.

Third, fluctuations in the upstream raw material market are uncertain about the trend of the later coke market. Recently, the price of coal in the upstream raw material of coke has also shown a dynamic trend of shock waves. Coal prices have fallen, coke production cost pressures are expected to ease, and rigid costs support coke prices to stabilize and lack momentum. However, near the end of the year, coking coal resources in some areas are relatively scarce. Before the end of the year, the coal mines have limited production. Therefore, the coal mines have a strong willingness to “sell the price”. In the later period, the coking coal market price will stabilize and stabilize, and the possibility of steady growth will not be ruled out. . This will have a certain impact on the trend of the late coke market.

Fourth, the changes in traders' mentality and the adjustment of business models will affect the trend of the later coke market. After four or five rounds of price cuts, the mentality of coke traders has changed, and there has been a “fear of falling” mood. Some merchants have sold at low prices, even panic-selling prices, digesting stocks, avoiding risks, and being more cautious in organizing resources. Will not rush to stock up. From this point of view, the changes in the mindset of traders and the adjustment of business models will inevitably have a certain impact on the changes in the market for the later coke market.